Our research team has spent the last few weeks developing three global industry forecasts to address three different recovery scenarios. Needless to say, this has been a highly complex and detailed process. Each of the scenarios is based on a detailed set of circumstances dependent on government pandemic control and are very well thought out. We did reference this in the Staffing Industry Daily News item, but given the brevity of the news format, were unable to give the full picture.
Let me start by saying no one scenario is more likely than the others. Each scenario is realistic and depends on the duration of Covid-19 related lockdowns.
The scenarios depicted forecast global staffing revenue declines of between 14% and 37% this year. But all three expect growth to resume in 2021. Here is a brief look at each scenario:
The first scenario is for a shorter outbreak. In this “V-shaped” recovery scenario, either the Covid-19 virus dissipates on its own or control of the outbreak is achieved via advances in testing, tracking, treatment, and/or prevention. Lockdown conditions are lifted after a maximum of two months, and the economy returns to normalcy reasonably rapidly. Under this scenario, SIA forecasts a decline in staffing revenue of 14% for 2020. Scenario 1 seems to be playing out in countries like China, Korea, New Zealand and Singapore.
Under the second scenario, the base case assumption is for a “U-shaped” recovery with lockdowns in effect for up to three months, at which time the virus weakens or becomes controlled mainly through advances in testing, tracking, treatment, and/or prevention. The economy gradually recovers, aided by massive government fiscal and monetary policy aid, and only modest to moderate negative economic impacts remain from the crisis (for example, higher unemployment, lower consumer spending, etc.) This scenario assumes the virus does not return significantly next winter or in additional waves of outbreaks, and that country governments around the world can control outbreaks. Continue reading here…
Source: The Staffing Stream